Business Models Doomed To Fail In 2009-2010:
Do to the economic downturn, and judging by what we see going on around us with all the affiliate networks from both the publisher and affiliate sides of our world: We predict these niches to fall with a brief synopsis behind each. Followed by a list of potential top niches and those that have most to gain.
* Retail / Product sites / drop ship: If you're thinking of starting a mini ebay or running a mall type environment or physical distribution chain, you'll more than likely need more marketing and awareness money than it will be worth to push clicks to your items, let alone try to wrap an affiliate program around it. Competing in this niche now as a startup is corporate suicide, as the bigger moguls focus on retention campaigns and cut throat competitor acquisition campaigns. For those with smaller ad-budgets, do not get a pre-made mall script you'll drive yourself crazy trying to monetize it. Focus on product specific or brand specific campaigns, that are accustomed to market shifts or in favor during the downturn (essentials/alternatives).
* Automotive / Performance: The cars themselves have stopped selling, the after market performance parts and high-end products are taking a hit as well. Perhaps however; the sub-level aftermarket cheap alternative types of models may do well. Existing car shop/dealership owners will be on the hunt to get their business out there and cars moving off the lot, potential profit pockets for those that offer marketing services.
* Ad based websites: If you're thinking of launching and attracting a general audience for the sake of directory listings, or auto-generated content filled with adsense or adbrite etc. you're probably going hate the fact that you're giving away your traffic in these hard times for pennies instead of monetizing them in more creative ways. Niche targetting may be the answer - look for products and websites that compliment your site no matter how general it is, and either plug their affiliate programs in place, or approach site owners to plug their ads for a monthly fee among your ad inventory. Ad dollars are going to be conservative among the online media buys through this eco phase (imo), the big providers are going to take in a lot more than usual but buy for cheaper and pay out less per click (again - only imo).
* Shipping/Handling new 'free trial' offers and products: Probably a horrible time to get into the new miracle product niche unless it is aimed at solving financial problems/worries... Infomercials on TV are on the rise as people fall into depression (if there is such a voluntary thing) and watch more late night TV with nothing to do... That's usually a bad sign for most of the online world, however it usually causes a spike for certain niches as well. The cost of your product, the ware-housing, distribution/fulfilment house, shipping/handling, chargebacks/refunds, network fees, affiliate problems, and messy ad spend are quite difficult to maintain during a downturn. Again, mine the markets well and seek out niches that perform best (just so happens we outline them for you ahead).
* Blogging for money: Blogs will always be used, and thousands more are popping up daily, the only thing blogs will really be useful for are backlinks, simple SEO friendly landing/presell pagaes, networks of sites for PR juice, or pushing a niche aff program that is recession proof. Simply creating one master blog and hoping for millions of hits/views/clicks/monetization like some of the bigheads do - is a cry out for attention at least, and a few bucks here and there at most.
* PLR Membership sites: Everyone and their mama knows someone that just launched an uber site where you get miracle tools, monthly ebooks, audios, articles, full site templates blah blah blah. All in hopes of retaining you for at least 6-12 months while they pour their hearts into the projects. Signing up to anything long term during uncertainty or panic is not in the avg consumers best interest (again except for certain niches that are recession proof or even recession aimed... food for thought 
* Affiliate Networks: I think both the CPA and the CPS (including digital products) will also have various trend shifts as certain niches spike and others fall. Those that have products based on vanity and non-essential items may see a big hit overall in their affiliate performance and numbers, while other niches will probably bring certain networks up via the few winners this pulls up through the ranks of the shift. Starting your own affiliate network right now is do or die, be prepared to die randomly with most variables working against you. I think the key here is to survive within other networks eco-system (no pun) and maximize their outreach through carefully mined and planned campaigns (as either affiliate or publisher/product owner).
For more nuggets check out Niche Choppers.
Norb's Projections for 2009-2010
